In the wake of the last presidential election, Donald Trump is expected to take on his second term as the 47th President of the United States. For some, his return to power signifies reinforcement of his prior administration’s tough stances on immigration and crime. For others, this raises concerns about the future of U.S. foreign policy and its role in international institutions like the United Nations and NATO. President-elect Trump has already made headlines by promising to enact 25% tariffs on all products coming into the United States from China, Mexico, and Canada on day one in office. On Truth Social, the “Twitter clone” owned by Trump, he claimed, “This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular, Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”. Although Trump views tariffs as a solution to the ongoing drug and immigration crises in America, the impact of tariffs on some of the United States' biggest trading partners will drastically affect global trade and economy, possibly resulting in destabilization to foreign policy engagements. For instance, the tariffs could, in turn, drastically affect jobs in the United States as “Mexico, China and Canada together account for more than a third of the goods and services both imported and exported by the United States, supporting tens of millions of American jobs”(1). Therefore, millions of United States jobs are at risk, drastically negatively affecting the country's economy and, in turn, affecting economies worldwide due to the interconnectedness of worldwide economies with that of the United States. While his supporters view these measures as a step towards economic self-sufficiency, critics warn of potential trade wars and the destabilizing effects on the global economy. Such policies signal a continuation of Trump’s “America first” agenda, one that challenges traditional alliance and international frameworks.
Perhaps one of the most pressing concerns of Trump's reelection is its impact on the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump has previously expressed scepticism about NATO’s purpose and criticized the US financial contributions to the alliance. During his campaign, he hinted at brokering the “right deal” to end the conflict, even suggesting that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia in exchange for peace. This position has sparked alarm among NATO allies, raising questions about the future of the US military and financial support for Ukraine. While the Trump administration may not result in an immediate withdrawal from NATO, a shift in priorities could weaken the alliance’s cohesion and embolden authoritarian regimes like Putin’s. This, in turn, places a challenge to the UN to uphold international law and sovereignty. Trump’s past criticism of the UN as “not a friend of democracy” and calls to reduce US funding from UN programs could undermine critical initiatives in global health, peacekeeping and climate action. Moreover, Trump’s isolationist policies could absolutely hinder international cooperation on pressing global challenges like refugee settlements. His administration’s plans to push asylum seekers into other countries has already been criticized for violating international refugee agreements.
In the face of these unfolding dynamics, Donald Trump’s second term as president marks a turning point for both the United States and the global community. The policies of a Trump administration, which are characterized by isolation rhetoric, economic protectionism, and scepticism toward foreign alliances, present serious obstacles to the linked global order. The implications for NATO, the UN and global trade extend far beyond U.S. borders, potentially reshaping the landscape of international relations. As the world braces for this new chapter, it is essential for nations and institutions to reinforce collaboration, uphold the principles of multilateralism, and address shared challenges with unity. The next four years will test the strength of global partnerships, but also offer an opportunity to reaffirm the values that underpin a stable, cooperative and just international system.
(1) Swanson, Ann et al. “Trump’s tariffs could scramble supply chains and impose heavy costs on businesses.” The New York Times, 25 November 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/business/economy/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china.html?smid=url-share.
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